The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) increased its votes in Nigeria’s southeast from 403,968 in 2019 to 799,957 in 2023, a 97.8% increase.
This data contrasts with the perception that the APC party is quite unpopular and unsellable in Nigeria’s Southeast. The party, despite the strong anti-APC sentiments in the southeast, succeeded in nearly doubling its votes over four years.
The party’s two presidential candidates in both elections were former President Muhammadu Buhari and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Both candidates are largely unpopular in the region for different reasons.
However, the APC maintained an upward trajectory over the years. At the moment, the projection is looking good for the party. The ruling party now controls three states in the region, Imo State, Ebonyi State, and Enugu State. The fourth state, Anambra state, is standing on shaky ground as its governor reportedly paid a visit to the APC National Chairman recently.
The APC can realistically project to cross the 1 million-vote mark across the Southeast in 2027, given its now-consolidated structure in the region and other favourable factors such as the power of incumbency and a divided opposition.
The Obi and NDC Challenge
The APC is facing its strongest opposition from a relatively new party with a weak structure. The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) fielded former Anambra Governor Peter Obi as its presidential candidate, undermining the unspoken APC strategy of denying Obi a platform to run in 2027.
Obi’s running mate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is a Northern political juggernaut and an obvious upgrade from his last running mate. The former Labour Party Presidential Candidate has more issues to campaign with, as the Tinubu Administration has been hard on the average Nigerian.
The positives for him are drowned out by one major flaw. The NDC is relatively new, with few party agents, making it very vulnerable to election rigging. The professional conduct of the election umpire, INEC, is also in question, given historical antecedents.
The 97.8% surge in APC Presidential votes suggests that the party is not as unpopular as projected. It also highlights a shift in the region’s voting patterns, as voters are becoming more open-minded and sophisticated in their politics.
